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The real estate market may transition smoothly during the "Golden September and Silver October" period.
2019-12-18
Introduction: The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" in the real estate market has arrived. Although consumers tend to relax their mindset to some extent during this period, whether sales expectations can be met still depends on the sincerity of developers' discounts. Most industry experts believe that the real estate market in September and October is likely to transition smoothly overall, with the main buyers being those with rigid demand and first-time upgraders.
Introduction: The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" in the real estate market has arrived. Although consumers tend to relax psychologically during this period, whether sales meet expectations depends on the sincerity of developers' discounts. Most industry experts believe that the real estate market will likely transition smoothly in September and October, with the main buyers being those with rigid demand and first-time improvement needs.
"Golden September, Silver October." The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" in the real estate market has arrived. So, what kind of scene will the so-called "golden sales season" in September and October present? This has sparked much speculation within the industry.
Consumers' psychological relaxation and a good sales atmosphere.
Mr. Zhang, a teacher living in Hedong, Changsha, planned to buy a wedding house for his son at the beginning of the year. "I've been observing for a few months, and overall the housing prices are relatively stable, but I still hope prices will drop a bit during the peak sales season," said Mr. Zhang. If the prices of the properties he favors in September and October meet his expectations, he will consider buying. In fact, many people share Mr. Zhang's thoughts and hope developers will offer greater discounts during this period. In fact, every year during the "Golden September and Silver October," people's consumption psychology tends to relax to varying degrees, and developers take the opportunity to make substantial profits.
Industry expert Liu Quanhai said that the real estate market, currently under regulation, is generally sluggish, but September and October are indeed peak sales seasons. Although some properties have experienced poor sales, the overall sales atmosphere is good, and the number of visitors to properties will increase significantly. As long as the cost performance of the properties is attractive, good sales are expected.
Cao Wenguo, sales manager of a well-known property in Hangzhou's Xihu District, believes that based on his past experience, sales in September and October are generally higher than in other months, with more people visiting or calling for inquiries, and the sincerity of buyers noticeably increases.
Mainly composed of people with rigid demand and first-time improvement needs.
The central bank's interest rate cut policy is undoubtedly a catalyst for those with rigid demand buying their first home. Differentiated regulatory policies are not obstacles for those with first-time improvement needs. Coupled with this year's economic slowdown and increased uncertainty in other investment products, the desire to buy homes among this group may be ignited.
Xiao Chengguang, deputy director of the research department at Guangzhou Aijia Real Estate, said that developers focus most on sales performance in the second half of the year, with September to December being especially critical. In fact, in regions such as Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, and Nanjing, developers tend to launch more projects in the second half of the year than in the first half, and inventory from the first half is concentrated to be resolved in the second half.
Xiao Chengguang expects that the overall real estate market nationwide in September and October should meet expectations, provided that developers introduce visible discount measures. The main buyers will be those with rigid demand and first-time improvement needs, with investors being a minority.
Investment analyst Zhang Xiwei also believes that real estate investors have decreased compared to before, but commercial real estate is still seen by many as a stable investment. They account for about 20-30% of all observers, often focusing more on location and quality, with no time constraints on investment, so they are unlikely to be the main consumers in September and October.
The real estate market is likely to transition smoothly overall.
The trend of the "Golden September and Silver October" real estate market has attracted attention from many industry insiders. Most experts believe that the market is most likely to transition smoothly this year, though some properties may see a surge due to large discounts.
Zuo Hui, chairman of Lianjia Real Estate, said the chance of the market becoming very hot in September and October this year is small, but the market will not decline either. Overall, it will continue the relatively stable market seen in August.
A person in charge at Shanghai Centaline Property said that although it is the traditional peak sales season, loan policy impacts have lowered some buyers' willingness, and the observation period may extend to the end of the year, making a sales boom unlikely. He believes developers should maximize discount sincerity and use low prices to achieve high sales volume.
Professor Li Lin from Zhongnan University of Economics and Law believes that national regulatory policies will not change in the short term, as evidenced by the State Council sending investigation teams to study local real estate markets. Current loan policies mainly benefit those with rigid demand. The government's goal is to suppress price speculation and malicious flipping to stabilize prices and maintain healthy and stable market development, avoiding large fluctuations. Therefore, expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" market should not be too high.
